XRP jumped about 7% to trade around $1.61 on Wednesday, pushing the cryptocurrency into a price zone that could determine whether its latest recovery develops into something larger.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has mapped out a long-term path towards $5.40, while recent whale accumulation has strengthened the bullish case.
But getting there would require XRP to absorb a substantial block of supply around current levels.
Analyst Ali Martinez previously identified $1.60 as a major profit-taking zone, where about 2.5 billion tokens changed hands.
The immediate question is therefore not $5.40, but whether buyers can hold the breakout they have reached.
Brandt’s $5.40 chart is a long-term case
Veteran trader Peter Brandt published a monthly XRP chart pointing to an “eventual advance” to $5.40.
“This is my long-term chart of XRP. It implies an eventual advance to $5.40,” Brandt wrote.
But he also stressed that publishing a chart was not the same as making a trade recommendation, and that distinction matters when interpreting the target.
At roughly $1.61, XRP would need to rise more than 200% to reach $5.40. Such a move would likely involve several resistance zones, corrections and shifts in broader crypto liquidity.
For investors, Brandt’s chart is better viewed as a long-term technical scenario than XRP’s next destination.
Wednesday’s move strengthens the setup because the token has reached an area analysts had already identified as important resistance.
XRP has reached the supply wall bulls needed to clear
The $1.60 area matters because on-chain data show substantial XRP previously changed hands there.
Martinez, cited by TheStreet, said the token faced relatively little resistance before $1.60, where roughly 2.5 billion XRP had traded.
“That’s the next major level I’m watching for potential profit-taking,” Martinez said.
That makes Wednesday’s move significant. XRP is now trading around the level where holders who previously acquired tokens may decide to sell into strength.
There is also a demand-side argument. Martinez highlighted data showing large holders accumulated about 1.54 billion XRP, worth roughly $2.2 billion, over 96 hours.
Whale accumulation helped XRP reach resistance. The next phase requires buyers to absorb supply released around $1.60.
That is why a sustained close above the level matters more than a brief spike through it.
If buyers defend $1.60 on subsequent pullbacks, the market would have stronger evidence that resistance is turning into support rather than marking the top of the rally.
Holding the breakout matters more than the headline target
Gregor Horvat of Wavetraders offers a measured view.
In analysis from FXStreet on Monday, Horvat said XRP’s rebound had brought its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages back into focus, potentially creating a base for broader recovery.
“If the moving averages hold and XRP starts to stabilize, we could see another leg higher as the recovery develops,” Horvat said.
His Elliott Wave analysis suggested XRP may be building a larger three-wave recovery as the previous bearish structure loses momentum.
Institutional flows offer some support, although they are not accelerating.
US spot XRP ETFs had recorded about $1.71 billion of cumulative net inflows through September 18, while the pace of new money slowed sharply over the previous three weeks.
That reinforces the case for treating $5.40 cautiously.
The more realistic bullish sequence is simpler: break resistance, hold it as support, establish a higher trading range and then challenge the supply zone.
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